Polymarket Combos Explained: How Parlays Fill, Pay, and Settle On Chain

A combo is one position across several Polymarket markets at once. You pick a side in each market, and each pick is a leg. Then you buy shares of the whole set. A share pays $1 if every leg resolves your way and $0 if any leg misses. Sportsbooks call this a parlay. Polymarket calls it a combo.

Combos run on two contracts on Polygon. The CombinatorialModule registers each combo as its own condition with the legs written into it. Exchange v3 then matches orders on that condition the same way the main exchange matches a single market. So a combo has its own order book and its own price. The price is whatever a buyer and a seller agreed on, not a formula over the leg prices.

The contracts went live on May 29, 2026. Between then and September 6, 547,155 distinct combos traded, across 82,864 wallets and 1,185,985 taker fills. 0xinsider.com/combos lists every one of them as it fills: the stake, what it pays if every pick hits, the picks themselves, and the wallet behind it.

One winning share redeems for $1. So the stake is the collateral you put in, the payout is the number of shares you get, and the price is the ratio between them. A fill at 45.5 cents turns $14,602.21 into 32,081.08 shares, which pays 2.197 times the stake. A fill at 6.6 cents turns $2,675.08 into 40,525.40 shares, which pays 15.15 times the stake. Divide one by the price and you have the multiplier.

There is no parlay table. On a sportsbook a three-leg parlay pays a fixed number the book chose. On Polymarket the multiplier moves with the combo's own book, and the feed prints the exact multiplier each fill got. Two wallets buying the same combo an hour apart can get different multipliers, because the book moved between them.

Most of the money sits close to even. Of the 144,900 taker buys of $50 or more on record, 51.2% pay between 2x and 5x and 24.9% pay under 2x. The long shots are rare: 7.0% pay 10x to 25x, 2.1% pay 25x to 100x, and 99 buys in the whole record, 0.1%, pay 100x or more.

On September 4 at 16:39 UTC, the wallet DegenKingBetter bought a two-pick combo: the Los Angeles Dodgers to beat the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers to beat the Cincinnati Reds, both that day. The stake was $14,602.21 at 45.5 cents a share, for 32,081.08 shares. The combos page shows it as $14,602.21 to win $32,081.08, a 2.197x chip beside those numbers, and Odds 45.5c on the line under them.

The order matched fifteen resting orders on the other side in a single block. The largest of them took 26,794.19 shares of it. That is worth knowing because it tells you the combo book had real depth at that price, which is not true of every combo on the page.

Both teams won. The combo settled Won, and the 32,081.08 shares redeemed for $32,081.08, a gain of $17,478.87 on the position before any fee. Every fill of that combo, including the later $683.72 buy that followed it, is at 0xinsider.com/combos/0x0330f1635a3a29a20429c78020df788ef30000000000000000000000000000. The wallet carries an A grade on 0xinsider.com/profile/@DegenKingBetter, set by profit it has booked, not by this one row.

Two days earlier, on September 2 at 18:24 UTC, a wallet named mazalMONSTER staked $2,675.08 on five MLB games at once: the Cleveland Guardians over the Toronto Blue Jays, the Texas Rangers over the Athletics, the Pittsburgh Pirates over the San Francisco Giants, the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Mets. The fill price was 6.6 cents, so the position was 40,525.40 shares, a $40,525.40 payout if all five came in.

The Diamondbacks won. The other four lost. One leg short pays the same as five legs short, and the position redeemed for $0. That is the largest payout anyone chased in the week ending September 6, and it sits in the feed next to the rows that hit.

The two examples together are the whole product. A combo is a single bet on a conjunction. The price tells you what the book thinks of the conjunction, the legs tell you what has to happen, and settlement is binary.

Polymarket's rule is short. If every leg resolves the way the combo picked, the YES side pays $1 a share. If any leg resolves the other way, the NO side pays. Each leg settles when its own market resolves, so a combo across an afternoon game and an evening game settles in two steps.

The feed shows this as three states. Open means no leg has lost and at least one is still to be decided. Won means every leg has won. Lost means one leg has lost, and the feed marks a combo Lost the moment that happens, even with other games still to play, because the outcome cannot change.

One case has no published rule. When a leg is voided, for example a postponed game with a 50/50 payout, Polymarket has not documented what the combo does. Rather than guess, the feed shows those combos as Unknown with the reason next to the status.

You do not have to hold to settlement. A combo share trades on its own book until the last leg resolves, so a buyer can sell a position that is halfway home, and a seller's row appears in the feed as Shares sold and Received instead of Stake and To win.

Two-leg combos are 32.1% of every combo bought and three-leg combos are 23.0%, so more than half of the ledger is a pair or a triple. Four legs are 16.4%, five legs 9.1%, six legs 6.2%, seven legs 3.4%, and eight or more legs 9.8%. The longest combo bought so far has 38 legs. It lost.

The dollars are more concentrated than the count. Two-leg combos hold $31,973,363 of the $54,376,768 staked on combos, which is 58.8%, and three-leg combos hold another $12,244,186. Everything with five legs or more adds up to $4,567,722, which is 8.4% of the money on 28.5% of the combos. Long combos are many and small.

Across the 1,006,027 settled buys on record, 23.7% won. Split by leg count the curve is steep. Two-leg buys won 34.3% of the time. Three legs, 21.7%. Four legs, 14.4%. Five legs, 10.9%. Six legs, 8.4%. Seven legs, 7.7%. Eight legs or more, 3.7%.

The shape is what multiplication predicts. If each leg is a 60% favorite and the legs are independent, two legs hit 36% of the time, three hit 21.6%, four hit 13.0%, and five hit 7.8%. The record tracks that arithmetic closely, which tells you most combos are stacks of favorites, and that a five-leg combo of favorites is a long shot no matter how safe each pick feels.

A win rate on its own says nothing about money. A 3.7% win rate is fine at 40x and ruinous at 10x. The next chart puts the two together.

For every settled combo, add up the dollars every buy staked and the dollars every winning buy redeemed for. On two-leg combos, $31,267,972 was staked and $30,788,362 was paid, which is 98.5 cents back per dollar. Three legs paid 91.4 cents. Four legs, 83.6 cents. Five legs, 73.5 cents. Six legs, 71.9 cents. Seven legs, 72.1 cents. Eight legs or more, 56.5 cents. Across the 1,006,027 settled buys, $53,194,688 was staked and $49,416,748 was paid: 92.9 cents per dollar.

Read the method before the number. This counts each taker buy as held to settlement and paid at $1 a share if the combo won, and it leaves fees out. Sells are 13.1% of taker fills, so some buyers exited early on either side and their real result differs from the settlement figure. The comparison across leg counts is the point, and the method is the same for every bar.

The pattern is steady. Every leg added moved the settled return further from break-even, and eight-leg buyers as a group got back a little more than half of what they put in. Whatever your view of any single combo, the record says the price of a long conjunction has been high.

Each row on 0xinsider.com/combos is one taker fill. The first line is the result and the pick count: Open, Won, or Lost, then 2 picks, 5 picks, and so on. Under it the bet reads as one sentence, $250.00 to win $437.50, with the multiplier as a chip beside it and Odds 57c on a quiet line below. A fill that bought NO says so there, because a NO buyer wins when a pick loses and the result marks would otherwise read backwards.

The picks column lists each one with a mark for its state, a check for won, a cross for lost, a dashed circle for still open, and the market it came from, linked to Polymarket. The trader column carries the wallet's grade letter, its Polymarket username when it has one, and the address. Click the name and you are on the profile, where the wallet's combo positions sit beside its single-market history.

The toolbar sorts by Newest or Largest and filters by Result (Open, Won, Lost), by Trader grade, by Number of picks (2, 3, 4, 5 and up), by Size (the default view starts at $50), by Payout (10x, 25x, 50x, 100x and up), and by Window (24 hours, 7 days, all time). Set Payout to 100x and Sort to Largest and the feed becomes a list of the biggest long shots anyone has chased. The count next to Combos in the sidebar is the number of combos open right now, recomputed every five minutes.

Click a pick count and you get that combo's own page: every fill of it, the makers and takers, and its lifecycle on chain, with the collateral that was split into it, merged out of it, and redeemed from it.

Polymarket publishes no endpoint that lists every combo or every combo trade. Each Data API combo route requires a wallet address, so it can answer for one user at a time. The feed is built from Polygon instead. Every five seconds the backend reads CombinatorialConditionPrepared events from the CombinatorialModule, which register new combos and their legs, and OrderFilled events from Exchange v3, which record the fills.

Each match emits one fill for the taker order and one for every maker order it crossed. The feed counts the taker once per match, so a $14,602.21 order that swept fifteen resting orders is one row, not fifteen. Prices are execution prices normalized to the YES side. Legs resolve to markets by the condition id written into the combo, and the ones that cannot be matched that way are described through Polymarket's Data API.

A banner on the page tells you the state of the read. Live is the normal state. Catching up means the reader is more than 900 blocks behind the chain and older fills are still arriving. No new blocks read since a given time means the read has stalled, and the feed stops at its last block. The feed never fills a gap with a guess.

A free account sees one sampled row and the largest payout chased in the trailing week. Pro sees the full feed as it fills, every filter, and the largest combos of the day, the week, and all time, at $25 a week. The feed is a record of what happened on chain. It is not a recommendation to buy any combo on it.

The wallet is the point. A four-leg combo from a wallet graded A on booked profit is a different fact from the same four legs bought by a wallet that opened last week and has never won. The grade is on every row, so the feed sorts itself: filter to the largest stakes of the day, then look at who placed them and what the rest of their record looks like.

Size on a long conjunction is information about conviction. When a wallet with a long record puts five figures on two favorites at 45 cents, it is telling you it thinks the pair is worth more than the book does. When a fresh wallet puts $2,675 on five games at 6.6 cents, it is telling you something else. Both are in the feed, and the profile behind each one is a click away.

Use it with the rest of the site. The whale feed at 0xinsider.com/terminal shows the same wallets' single-market trades as they land, the leaderboard at 0xinsider.com/leaderboard ranks them by realized profit, and the combos feed shows where they are stacking legs. A wallet that is long a team on the moneyline and long the same team inside three combos has told you its position three times.