Polymarket wallets ranked by how far their settled geopolitics buys beat the price they paid, on a conservative lower bound, beside the recent large trades on conflicts, diplomatic agreements, trade policy, and sanctions.
Ranked by the 95% lower bound of each wallet's edge on its first large buys, observed as they filled and equal-weighted by independent event. Coverage is Polymarket only and partial: large taker buys since model launch, not reconstructed history, and not raw win rate.
A live rank needs 30 resolved independent events. Each row uses model category-skill-v2.1.0, and observations begin , from partial Goldsky primary taker fills.
No ranked wallet matches these filters. Widen the activity window or lower the independent-event floor.
Large trades in geopolitics, ranked by how unusual they are rather than by time, each with the wallet behind it. Without Pro a trade reaches this flow once it is 24 hours old, and the suspicion score behind the ranking stays with Pro.
Wallets first seen in the last 30 days, placing large directional trades. They have little settled history yet, so this is flow, not edge.
International conflicts (ceasefire timelines, territorial outcomes), diplomatic agreements, trade policy (tariffs, sanctions), international organization decisions, and leadership transitions in major countries.
The wallets ranked at the top of this page. The order is the 95% lower bound of each wallet's edge against the price paid, measured on its first large buy in every settled geopolitics market as it filled. A short lucky run has a wide interval and a low bound, so it rarely reaches the top.
Start where you have domain knowledge and the price looks inconsistent with the incentives, the precedents, and the constraints on the people involved. Then read the resolution rules before you size the position.
Every other category we track.
0xinsider has no accuracy figure for geopolitics markets alone; its calibration study pools every Polymarket category. Geopolitical events often have no precedent, the information is incomplete, and the resolution criteria can be ambiguous, so read the rules before you size a position here.
A diplomatic announcement, a military action, or a leak can move a price within minutes. Faster access to reliable news, and a framework to read it, is the advantage here.
