Prediction market trader grades explained: what S, A, B, C, D, and F mean

On October 11, 2026, 170,974 wallets held a grade: 324 S, 1,163 A, 9,331 B, 65,435 C, 68,851 D and 25,870 F. Each letter ranks a wallet's banked profit against every other graded wallet's, then checks the record against a set of floors.

95% of the ranking is banked profit: what the wallet made on positions that settled or sold, plus rebates. Half of it is the lifetime total and half the recent record, with each day's P&L losing half its weight every 90 days. A 5% tie-breaker covers edge over the price paid, record length, win rate, drawdown and consistency.

S, A and B wallets make up the public board. Open positions count for nothing until they settle, so a big paper gain earns no letter.

The median F wallet has settled 150 markets; the median C wallet, 42. A bad grade is often a long record of losing, and a middling one is often a record too short to say much. Depth tells you which kind of letter you're looking at.

Read banked profit next. The median S wallet has banked $255,238, the median C wallet $32 and the median F wallet a loss of $7,153. Open positions come after that: they are still exposed to the price and sit outside the grade.

Last, check when the wallet last traded. The median C wallet's last trade was 123 days before this count.

S takes the top 0.3% of the ranking and the hardest floors: 200 settled markets, $50,000 traded, a positive edge, banked profit, no drawdown deeper than 10% of capital and a trade in the last 30 days. 324 wallets held an S on October 11, 2026.

A promotion rule also hands an S to a deep, recent record with $1 million or more banked, even when its ranking falls short. The median S wallet has settled 2,299 markets, and its worst drawdown was 0.81% of its capital.

Half the wallets that held an S on September 20 held one three weeks later. An S describes a deep, banked record as of its date, so check the date.

The ranking puts 2,597 wallets in the A band, and 1,139 of them hold an A: 44%. S keeps 56% of its band and B 64%, so A is the letter most wallets fall out of.

Most of the fall is a trader taking a break. A wallet idle 30 days holds a B at most, and that one rule explains most of the S- and A-band wallets that hold a B. The A floor itself asks for 50 settled markets, $20,000 traded, a measured edge, banked profit and no drawdown deeper than 10% of capital.

So an A that drops to B is often a good trader who stopped. Check the last trade before you write the wallet off.

Every S and A wallet traded in the last 30 days, because the grader won't let a quiet wallet keep either letter. B is where they go. So B holds two kinds of wallet: ones that earned a B outright, and S and A records whose owners stopped. 639 of the idle B wallets rank S or A on their record.

B is the lowest letter on the leaderboard. The ordinary B band asks for 10 settled markets, banked profit and a ranking in the top 10%. The P&L ladder can also promote a wallet from the C band to B at $100,000 banked profit when it passes the edge, activity, volume, sample-size and drawdown safeguards. The median B wallet has settled 171 markets and banked $6,753.

Read a B by its last trade. An active B earned the letter at today's pace; an idle one may be an S or A record waiting for its owner to come back.

5,730 C wallets rank S, A or B and hold a C anyway. Most stopped trading more than 120 days ago, the cap that holds any wallet at C. 585 have settled fewer than 10 markets, among them mintblade, which banked $9.1 million on five.

So C is not one kind of trader. Seven in ten C wallets have banked a profit, and together they have banked $486.5 million, more than every S and A wallet combined. The C band itself is the ranking's 55th to 90th percentiles.

Read a C by its depth and its last trade. A short or idle record is a C because the grader can't vouch for it, not because it lost.

68,851 wallets held a D on October 11, 2026. D covers the ranking's 15th to 55th percentiles, and only 2.6% of D wallets have banked a profit.

The median D wallet has lost $311 over 81 settled markets, and its worst drawdown was 10.2% of its capital, past the line an S or A may not cross. Nearly every D is a losing record, and half of them have lost less than $311.

The median F wallet has lost $7,153 over 150 settled markets. That's a long record and a losing one, which makes F the easiest letter on the scale to read.

F is the bottom 15% of the ranking, and 99% of F wallets have no banked profit. Fading them is a different claim: nothing in this count says an F wallet's next trade loses.

Most Unranked wallets have nothing to grade: no market on Polymarket's own count. Unranked means the grader has no verdict yet, which is different from a low grade.

The rest were each missing one input. A grade needs 5 markets to join the cohort, and a newly found wallet waits for its full volume and daily P&L history to load.

Two of the chart's reasons no longer withhold a grade: a settled position with no dated trade, and too few priced positions. Each now leaves out only the recent half of the edge over the price paid, under 1% of the grade. A position has no dated trade when it came from splitting USDC into both outcomes or from a transfer, or when its trades have not loaded yet.

A 70% win rate over 5 markets fits any true rate from about 30% to 93%, by the Wilson interval the grader uses. Over 200 markets, the same 70% fits 63% to 76%.

The interval assumes each market is a separate test. Ten bets on one game are closer to one bet, and then the interval is too narrow.

Read the settled-market count first and the win rate second.

On October 11, 2026, 5,224 graded wallets showed a profit on Polymarket with no banked profit, and none of them held better than a C. Polymarket's figure counts open positions; the grade counts only what has settled or sold.

The floors are the other gap. A wallet can bank millions and hold a C on a short or idle record, and a wallet ranked in the A band can hold a B because it stopped trading for a month.

When the profit and the letter disagree, check what is still open, then the settled-market count, then the last trade.

Use the letter to choose whom to study, then study the record: banked profit, settled markets, drawdown and last trade. Two A wallets can share a letter and little else.

Note the date when you read a grade. Of the 1,522 wallets holding an A on September 20, 807 held a lower letter three weeks later.

A grade is a record of settled trades. Whether a record beats the next price is a separate question, the one the grade study tests, and you still pay whatever price is left.