How Polymarket and Kalshi traders
win on earnings calls.

Traditional earnings plays are binary — buy the stock and hope, or sit it out entirely. Prediction markets created something more precise: markets where the question is explicit. “Will Nvidia beat Q4 revenue estimates?” Yes or No. A price, a position, a resolution.

These markets attract a specific kind of trader. Analysts who model supply chains. Quants who track estimate revisions. Insiders with a read on channel checks. The result is a pricing mechanism that often moves before the stock does.

0xInsider gives you a bird's eye view of all of it — who traded, how much, and what their track record says about whether you should pay attention.

An earnings prediction market poses a simple question: “Will Company X beat quarterly earnings estimates?” Traders answer by buying shares in one of two outcomes — Yes or No. Each share pays out $1 if correct and $0 if wrong.

Every earnings market has two sides. A Yes share pays $1 if the company beats the estimate. A No share pays $1 if it misses. At any given moment, the Yes price and No price add up to roughly $1. If Yes trades at 75¢, No trades near 25¢.

When you see a trader buy Yes at 75¢, they're paying 75 cents for a contract that returns $1 if the company beats earnings — a 25-cent profit per share if they're right, and a 75-cent loss per share if they're wrong. The price reflects how confident the market is in that outcome.

A Yes price of 72¢ means the market collectively estimates a 72% chance the company beats earnings. As more traders buy Yes, the price rises — 72¢ becomes 74¢, then 75¢ — and the implied probability climbs with it. A price of 50¢ is a coin flip. A price of 90¢ is near-certainty.

This is what makes earnings prediction markets useful as a sentiment gauge. The price isn't an opinion poll — it's backed by real capital. Every cent of price movement represents actual money flowing in one direction. When the price moves from 70¢ to 80¢ in an hour, that shift represents thousands of dollars of new conviction.

Buying opens a new position. A trader buying Yes at 75¢ is entering a long position on the company beating estimates. Selling closes it — either to lock in profit if the price moved in their favor, or to cut losses if it moved against them. Traders don't have to hold until the earnings call. They can exit at any time at the current market price.

A trader can also buy No — this is how you bet against an earnings beat. Buying No at 25¢ is economically equivalent to shorting Yes. If the company misses, that 25¢ contract pays $1.

Earnings prediction markets are available on Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket settles on-chain, so every trade is publicly verifiable — a trader's full position history, entry prices, and timing are visible to anyone who knows where to look. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where trades happen through a traditional order book.

Typical earnings markets cover the largest public companies — Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet — and ask whether the company will beat analyst consensus on EPS, revenue, or both. Markets open days or weeks before the earnings call and resolve within hours after the numbers are reported.

0xInsider ingests every trade on earnings markets across both platforms. Each trade is tagged with the earnings category, enriched with the trader's historical grade and performance metrics, and scored for signal strength. The result is a real-time view of who is positioning on which earnings call, how much capital is flowing in, and whether the traders involved have a track record of getting earnings right.

Category-level P&L breakdowns isolate earnings performance from the rest of a trader's activity. A trader might be profitable overall but consistently lose on earnings markets, or vice versa. This distinction matters — and it's only visible when you can filter by category.

If you trade stocks, you watch earnings. You read the previews, check analyst estimates, maybe run a model. But by the time the numbers hit the wire, the move is priced in. You're reacting to information that others positioned on hours or days earlier.

Prediction market traders don't wait for the call. They price in their conviction beforehand — and that positioning is visible to anyone paying attention. The traders buying “Apple beats EPS” at $0.72 three hours before the call are telling you something. The question is whether you can see it.

0xInsider makes that positioning visible. Every earnings trade, every trader's grade, every pattern — in real time. Not after the fact. While it's happening.