Accumulation Trading Strategy

The accumulator watches a market over days or weeks, buying Yes shares when sentiment drives the price down and No shares when sentiment pushes it up. Over time, they build a portfolio of shares on both sides acquired at different costs. When they've accumulated enough shares at a combined average cost below $1.00, they can merge pairs for profit — or hold and continue accumulating if they expect more favorable entry points.

This strategy thrives in volatile markets where sentiment swings create opportunities to buy each side cheaply at different times. The key insight is that a market doesn't need to be mispriced at any single moment — it just needs to offer good entry points on each side at different moments over the life of the event.

On prediction markets, accumulators typically target high-profile, long-duration markets — elections, policy decisions, or recurring events where sentiment shifts are common. They'll buy Yes shares during a panic sell-off, then buy No shares during a euphoric rally, gradually building a balanced position that's profitable regardless of outcome.

The strategy requires patience and capital efficiency. Accumulators often have capital tied up across multiple markets for weeks or months. Their trade frequency is lower than arbitrageurs, but individual position sizes are often larger. They're identifiable by their presence on both sides of a market with entries spread across different time periods.