How to See the Biggest Kalshi Trades in Real Time

On February 11, 2026, someone placed a $316,248 bet that Trump would nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed Chair (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3499537). The market was pricing this outcome at $0.04 — a 4% implied probability. At that price, the trader bought roughly 7.9 million contracts. If Shelton gets the nomination, the payout is $7.9 million. If not, the trader loses $316K. That is a 24:1 risk-reward ratio on a single political event, placed on a CFTC-regulated exchange, with real USD from a verified bank account.

This is the kind of trade that separates prediction market spectators from participants. The $316K Shelton bet is the largest Kalshi whale trade 0xInsider has captured to date — but it is far from the only one worth watching. In the same session, two $100K trades landed on the opposite side of the same market (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3528252), an $81K bet hit Spurs at Lakers (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3666636), and a $63K position went into Pacers at Knicks (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3661690). Over $4 million in Kalshi whale volume moved across 169 trades in just two days.

Most Kalshi users never saw any of these trades happen. They checked their positions later, noticed prices had shifted, and wondered why. The 0xInsider terminal at 0xinsider.com/feed captured the $316K Shelton buy the second it landed. Anyone watching the feed saw a six-figure political bet flash across their screen, with the market, the side, the price, and the size — all in real time. That is the gap between trading on signal and trading on yesterday's news.

Kalshi is not just another prediction market. It is a Designated Contract Market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — the same federal agency that oversees the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and other major US derivatives markets. Every trader on Kalshi has passed full KYC verification. Every dollar deposited comes from a verified bank account. This regulatory layer changes the nature of the data you can extract from large trades.

On unregulated platforms, a $50K trade could come from anyone — a professional quant fund, a crypto whale playing with house money, or a bot running an untested strategy. On Kalshi, a $50K trade comes from a verified individual or entity who has deposited real USD from a regulated financial institution. The capital is provably real, the identity is verified, and the trader faces actual financial consequences. When someone drops $316K on a Fed Chair nominee at 4 cents on Kalshi, that conviction is backed by real money from a real person — not pseudonymous crypto on a permissionless chain.

Kalshi also offers market categories that overlap with but differ from Polymarket. Sports betting has emerged as the dominant category by trade count — NBA and college basketball alone account for over 130 of the 169 whale trades we have captured so far. But the biggest single trades are political and economic: the Judy Shelton Fed Chair bet dwarfs everything else in the dataset. As Kalshi's market catalog expands, the data only gets richer.

Here is the problem most prediction market traders face: the data is scattered. Kalshi trades happen on a centralized exchange with no public ledger. Polymarket trades settle on Polygon. Watching both requires stitching together multiple data sources, manually cross-referencing wallets, and hoping you notice the important trade before the price adjusts. Nobody does this well. The information is technically available. It is practically invisible.

The 0xInsider terminal solves this by aggregating whale trades from every major prediction market platform into a single real-time feed. Kalshi trades, Polymarket trades — all in one stream, the moment they happen. Each trade shows the size, direction, market, outcome, price, and which platform it came from. The Kalshi icon (green) and Polymarket icon (blue) sit next to the timestamp so you can instantly see the source. No tab switching. No manual reconciliation. One screen, every platform.

The terminal is built like professional trading infrastructure — a Bloomberg-style layout with a live feed at the center, a hot markets panel showing where capital is flowing right now, and a detail panel that expands any trade into a full breakdown. When the $316K Judy Shelton trade landed, it appeared on the feed instantly — alongside the two $100K counter-bets on the same market. You could see both sides of the trade in one view, assess the divergence, and decide within minutes. That context is impossible to get from any single platform's interface.

Try it yourself at 0xinsider.com/feed. Free accounts see the full trade archive with a 4-hour delay. Insider subscribers see every trade in real time with sound alerts, signal scoring, and the hot markets panel. The LIVE indicator at the top shows the feed is streaming — active whales, total volume, and trade count update continuously.

When a large Kalshi trade appears on the feed, your first instinct might be to follow it immediately. Resist that. A whale trade is a data point, not a trading signal. It becomes a signal only when you put it in context. The 0xInsider terminal gives you everything you need to evaluate a trade without leaving the page.

Start with the price. The $316K Judy Shelton bet at $0.04 (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3499537) is a completely different animal from the $100K counter-trade at $0.97 on the same market (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3528252). The first is a speculative long shot — risking $316K for a potential $7.6M payout, accepting that the most likely outcome is total loss. The second is a near-certainty play — risking $100K to make roughly $3K, betting that Shelton will not be nominated. Same market, opposite risk profiles. The price tells you everything about how the trader frames the bet.

Next, consider the category. Sports trades — which dominate Kalshi whale activity by count — have different dynamics than political or economic trades. An $81K bet on Spurs at Lakers at $0.85 (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3666636) is a high-conviction sports play from someone who likely has a sharp model. A $316K political bet at $0.04 is a completely different style of trading — low probability, massive payoff, driven by information or conviction that the crowd has not priced in. The terminal displays the market title, the specific outcome the trader chose — including team names for matchups — so you can evaluate immediately.

Finally, look for clustering. When the Judy Shelton market saw a $316K Yes trade followed by two $100K No trades within 30 minutes, that is not noise — that is a contested market with strong opposing views from large traders. The 0xInsider feed lets you see these patterns in real time as they develop, not after the fact.

From the 169 Kalshi whale trades we have tracked so far, the data reveals a clear pattern. NBA basketball and college basketball dominate by trade count — 57 and 60 trades respectively — accounting for a combined $2.9 million in volume. These are high-frequency sports bettors placing $15-50K positions on individual games, spreads, and totals.

But the single largest bets are political. The Fed Chair nominee market produced $619K in volume from just 8 trades — an average of $77K per trade, more than triple the average across all categories. The $316K Shelton trade alone accounts for 15% of all Kalshi whale volume we have captured. When political conviction meets a CFTC-regulated exchange, the position sizes get serious.

Other categories rounding out the data: pro basketball spreads and totals ($285K, 10 trades), multi-game parlays ($104K, 5 trades), Winter Olympics hockey ($65K, 5 trades), and smaller positions in tennis, Premier League soccer, cricket, and even a $10K bet on whether Ali Khamenei leaves office. The category distribution will shift as more markets go live and more data accumulates — but the early pattern is clear: sports drive volume, politics drives conviction.

The hot markets panel on the terminal ranks markets by whale activity in real time. When a Kalshi market suddenly lights up with three large trades in two hours, it jumps to the top of the hot list. This surfaces the signal automatically without you monitoring dozens of markets manually.

The numbers tell the story. Polymarket has tracked 4,661 whale trades across 1,089 markets, with an average trade size of $45K and a single-trade maximum of $2.1 million. Kalshi, which 0xInsider began tracking more recently, has 169 trades across 58 markets, averaging $24K per trade with a maximum of $316K. Polymarket has deeper volume and broader market coverage. Kalshi brings regulated, KYC-verified capital to different market categories.

This is exactly why the 0xInsider terminal shows both platforms in a single unified feed. One screen, both platforms, every whale trade. Platform icons and brand colors — green for Kalshi, blue for Polymarket — make the source instantly identifiable. The hot markets panel aggregates activity across both platforms, so you can see when a market is attracting whale capital from multiple sources — a signal that is stronger than activity on either platform alone.

Cross-platform divergences are where the real edge lives. When Kalshi whales are buying Yes and Polymarket whales are selling the same outcome, somebody is wrong. These moments create arbitrage opportunities and signal uncertainty that pure price data cannot capture. The unified feed makes these divergences visible at a glance. Without it, you would need to monitor two separate platforms, mentally merge the data, and hope you noticed the discrepancy before it resolved.

Prediction market prices adjust fast. When a $316K trade lands on a Kalshi political market, the price moves. Other traders see the size, assess the direction, and follow — or market makers widen their spreads to account for the new information. The window between the whale's entry and the new equilibrium price is measured in minutes to hours, not days.

With the free 4-hour delayed feed on 0xInsider, you see every trade — but you see it after the price has already absorbed the information. A Kalshi trade that landed at midnight shows up on your delayed feed at 4 AM. By then, the market has already reacted. The trade is now a historical data point, not an actionable signal. Delayed data is genuinely valuable for research and pattern recognition — studying which categories attract the biggest bets, how prices respond to different trade sizes — but it is not a trading tool.

The real-time Insider feed changes the equation. You see the $316K Shelton bet the moment it lands. You can check whether other whales are taking the same side, look at the counter-trades, and decide whether the 4% implied probability is too low given the new information. The same trade, the same data — but the timing makes it a completely different asset. For traders who want to use whale tracking as an active part of their strategy, real-time access on the 0xInsider terminal is the difference between trading on signal and trading on echo.

Open the 0xInsider terminal at 0xinsider.com/feed. You will see the live feed streaming whale trades from both Kalshi and Polymarket in real time. The LIVE indicator at the top shows active whales, total volume, and trade count — updating continuously. Look for the green Kalshi icon next to the timestamp to identify trades from the regulated exchange. Sort by size to surface the biggest recent bets.

The data is already there. You can see the $316K Judy Shelton trade (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3499537), the $81K Spurs bet (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3666636), the $63K Pacers position (0xinsider.com/whale/trade/3661690) — all real trades, all captured live. Scroll the feed to study how large capital moves across Kalshi's sports and political markets. Click into any trade for the full detail: market title, outcome, entry price, and the specific team or candidate they bet on. No raw contract IDs, no guessing.

For real-time access, Insider subscribers see every trade the moment it lands — from both Kalshi and Polymarket — with sound alerts for high-signal trades. Enable the sound alert for trades above $25K to catch the highest-conviction bets without noise from smaller positions. Combine the feed with the daily whale digest email — a summary of the previous 24 hours of whale activity across all platforms, delivered at 8:00 AM UTC — to maintain awareness even on days when you cannot watch the live terminal.

The traders who consistently find edge are not the ones reading recap articles the next day. They are the ones watching the 0xInsider terminal when the $316K Fed Chair bet flashes across the screen. The data is real. The feed is live. Every platform, one screen.