addyfizzle10: Positive P&L in 98.6% of 10,851 stored Up-or-Down markets, -$42,731 portfolio P&L (July 14, 2026)

In a production retrieval on July 14, 2026, addyfizzle10 had 10,851 stored realized-market rows in Polymarket's Up-or-Down markets. 10,702 had positive realized P&L, 139 negative, and 10 closed at exactly zero: a 98.63% positive-P&L rate. Polymarket's leaderboard put the wallet's all-time, all-market portfolio P&L at -$42,730.67.

Correction (July 14, 2026): we withdrew the original 15-minute analysis after its trader, its duration scope, and its account total failed production checks. This version uses a verified wallet, Polymarket's portfolio total, and the whole Up-or-Down family. The URL is unchanged, so earlier citations reach the corrected analysis.

Polymarket's event identifiers for this wallet use two naming families, updown and up-or-down. Every market-level figure below uses those provider-owned families instead of guessing a duration from the title.

Polymarket's own markets-traded counter read 10,845, 6 lower than the stored resolved-row count. The two counters come from different systems, and the stored provider field can keep a last-known value, so the exact cause is unknown. This page calls 10,851 stored rows, not Polymarket's count.

Every stored row for this wallet fell inside the Up-or-Down families at retrieval time, but Polymarket's market counter still differed from the stored count. So this page does not split the provider total across stored rows or rebuild it from them. A positive-P&L rate is one input, not the account total.

The stored data has two accounting bases. The trader record mirrors Polymarket's leaderboard and owns the portfolio total. The per-market records hold narrower provider-backed diagnostics.

The per-market rows sum to -$71,855.50, which is not the wallet's portfolio P&L. The backend retired that rollup after it over-counted other wallets by 7 to 10 times and sometimes flipped the sign. Merges, redeems, and maker rebates change the portfolio without belonging to any one market row.

So this article uses -$42,730.67 whenever it names the account total, and the per-market rows only for counts, averages, extremes, and observed trade intervals.

The average positive market made $3.37; the average negative market lost $776.62. One average loss was about 230 times the size of one average win. Both averages leave out the 10 rows that closed at exactly zero.

In the 10,844 stored markets with observed raw trades, the first and last observed trades were 9.13 minutes apart on average. The other 7 stored rows had no raw trade and are left out of that average.

The worst stored market closed at -$55,413.86 and the best at +$746.55, so the worst was about 74.2 times the size of the best. These are provider-backed per-market values, not a replacement portfolio ledger.

Use the provider leaderboard for the portfolio total. Use per-market rows to inspect distribution, extremes, and position sizing. Do not sum those rows and relabel the result as portfolio P&L.

In the stored raw-trade ledger, 49,192 of 82,808 observed buys were at 95¢ or above, and they carried $12.13 million of the $12.32 million in stored buy notional. Total buy dollars divided by total buy shares gives a 98.2¢ blended cost.

Do not compare that blended cost with the 98.63% positive-P&L rate. The cost weights every share (total buy dollars divided by total buy shares), while the rate gives each stored market one vote.

On the per-market basis, the useful checks are loss size, the gap between the worst and best market, and how many markets have observed trades. Here the loss figures show a concentration that the headline positive-P&L rate hides.

The verified wallet is at 0xinsider.com/profile/0xd26a07185f9075c541dc085e47c9bcbe9c8cc5ea. The P&L at the top comes from Polymarket and is the portfolio total; the market history shows where the gains and losses concentrate.

If you trade Up-or-Down markets, treat your positive-P&L rate as one input, not the result. Check the size of your losses, the worst-to-best gap, and how concentrated your trades are, and never add per-market rows into a second account total.