What a large trade is
| Bought | Date | Size | Price | Pays if right | Grade | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUT Esports to beat FURIA | August 22 | $1,005,519 | 44.8¢ | $2,244,462 | F | Won |
| Deportivo Alavés to beat Valencia | September 15 | $961,004 | 59.9¢ | $1,604,347 | C | Lost |
| Real Madrid to beat Real Sociedad | August 26 | $899,999 | 82.0¢ | $1,097,560 | B | Won |
| Chiefs to beat the Broncos | September 14 | $847,581 | 55.0¢ | $1,541,056 | C | Won |
| Yankees to beat the Rockies | September 8 | $830,916 | 85.0¢ | $977,548 | S | Won |
Size is the USDC paid at the fill. Pays if right is the shares bought at the recorded fill price, $1 each at settlement. Grade is the wallet's latest ranking on 0xinsider. Each row opens the game on 0xinsider.
On 0xinsider a large trade is a single Polymarket fill of $10,000 or more, or $1,000 or more on an earnings market, and it has to be at least 0.1% of the shares traded in that market. The fill also has to clear below 97¢, or below 99¢ on an earnings market: at 98¢ there is almost nothing left to be right about.
Size is relative to the market. A $50,000 trade in a market that averages $2 million per day is notable. The same trade in a market averaging $20,000 per day moves the price. That is what the 0.1% floor is for: over the fourteen days to September 23, 2026, it would have kept out 351 of 6,499 fills, and every one of them landed in a politics or geopolitics market big enough that a $10,000 print was rounding error.
Every Polymarket trade is recorded on the Polygon blockchain, so a $500,000 position is visible to anyone within seconds. In traditional markets a trade that size sits behind intermediaries and delayed reporting. The table above lists the largest trades of the last 30 days and how each one ended.
Why large trades matter
A trader does not put $100,000 on one outcome casually, so size filters out passing opinions. It does not make the trade right. What separates large trades is the wallet behind them.
In 155,832 Polymarket sports buys of $1,000 or more from June 1 to September 11, 2026, wallets graded S, A and B as of the day each buy cleared won 65.9% of the time at an average price of 64.7¢: 1.25 points better than they paid, on an interval from 0.20 to 2.31 that clears zero. The intervals for the other cohorts straddle zero, as the chart above shows. The study is at 0xinsider.com/research/sharp-money-polymarket-sports.
A large trade also moves the price mechanically. A $200,000 buy in a thin market pushes the price up whether or not the buyer knows anything. A market maker adjusting quotes across 20 markets at once is managing inventory. Before you read a view into a trade, check which kind it is.
Reading the 0xinsider live feed
The live feed at 0xinsider.com/trades lists large Polymarket trades. Each row names the wallet and the grade it has earned, the side it took, the outcome and the price it paid, and the size in dollars. Filter by category, side, price, size, and grade.
A grade describes a wallet's settled results. It is not a forecast for the trade in front of you.
Use a row as a reason to research. Open the wallet's profile for its history and its other positions in related markets. Ask why this wallet would make this bet, whether you have independent reasons to agree, and whether the price has already adjusted.
How the review score works
Each large trade has a review score from 0.0 to 1.0. A higher score helps you prioritize which trades to inspect.
Open the trade to review its price, size, wallet record and market context. Check the current spread and available liquidity before acting on a historical fill.
The score is a review aid. It does not estimate the probability of resolution, establish profitable edge, or justify copying the trade on its own.
Following vs copying large traders
Following means using large trades as one input: they point you at markets worth researching and show how skilled wallets are positioned. Copying means taking the same position at whatever price is left. Following is sound practice. Copying usually loses money.
The price has moved by the time you see the trade. If a trader buys $200,000 of Yes at 45¢ and pushes the price to 55¢, you enter at 55¢. Their expected value was calculated at 45¢. At 55¢ the edge may be much narrower or negative, and over many trades that slippage eats your returns.
So price it yourself. If your own estimate says Yes is still underpriced at 55¢, enter. If it says fair value is 52¢, place a limit buy at 50¢ and wait. If it says 55¢ is fair, move on.
Check the wallet first. The chart above shows the share of wallets in profit at each grade.
Building a large-trade-informed strategy
Filter the live feed to the categories you trade and a size floor that keeps the feed readable. When a large trade from a well-graded wallet appears, open the market and the profile, make your own probability estimate, and decide whether the current price is worth taking.
Keep a watchlist of wallets whose records justify attention: S or A grades, or a specialty in the categories you trade. 0xinsider.com/leaderboard ranks them. Treat a trade from a watchlist wallet as a high-priority research prompt and one input to your own analysis.
Measure whether it helps. Over 50 or more markets, compare your win rate, profit factor and average return on trades where you used large trade data against trades where you did not. If there is no meaningful difference, the data is not adding value for your approach.
