---
title: "Both Teams to Score: 13,071 Settled Polymarket Soccer Matches, by League and by Half"
canonical: "https://0xinsider.com/research/both-teams-to-score-polymarket"
datePublished: "2026-09-13"
dateModified: "2026-09-13"
description: "Both teams scored in 54.4% of 13,071 settled Polymarket soccer matches: 63.4% in MLS, 56.6% in the Premier League, 44.6% in Argentina. Over 2.5 goals, the draw and halftime leads, with charts."
---

# Both Teams to Score: 13,071 Settled Polymarket Soccer Matches, by League and by Half

Last updated: 2026-09-13
Canonical: https://0xinsider.com/research/both-teams-to-score-polymarket

Polymarket lists both teams to score as its own Yes and No market on soccer matches, so how often both teams score is a count. Of 13,071 settled markets since October 24, 2025, 54.4% resolved Yes, to within 0.85 of a point. MLS and the Bundesliga ran near 63%, Serie A and Argentina's Primera División under 47%. When both teams scored, the match went over 2.5 goals 77.9% of the time; when one did not, 22.4%. A team leading at halftime won 75.4% of the time. Large bets on both teams to score came in close to their prices on both sides.

## Both teams to score is its own market on Polymarket

On Polymarket, both teams to score is a Yes and No market listed with the match's other markets, titled "Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score". A Yes share pays $1 if each team scores at least one goal. A No share pays $1 if either team fails to score, which covers a 0-0 and any win to nil.

The market's rules count the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so extra time and penalties do not count, and a match cancelled with no make-up game settles 50-50. Some matches also carry a first-half and a second-half version, and some carry halftime markets: one for each team leading at halftime and one for a draw at halftime.

Because every one of those markets settles to a result, the questions soccer bettors ask about them have answers in the data. This study counts every settled market of each type, by competition, sets both teams to score against the 2.5 goal line and the draw on the same matches, follows halftime scores to the full-time result, and scores every large bet on both teams to score from April 2, 2026 against its price.

## 13,071 settled both teams to score markets

The count covers every Polymarket both teams to score market with a kickoff on record and a Yes or No result, from the first on October 24, 2025 to September 13, 2026: 13,071 matches. Markets that settled 50-50 are left out. Competition comes from the event's slug prefix, and each competition's name in this study was read off its fixtures, Manchester United against Manchester City for the Premier League, Getafe against Deportivo for La Liga.

The halftime markets start later. There are 5,741 settled draw-at-halftime markets, and 4,435 matches from February 27, 2026 with all three halftime markets settled. Joins to a match's result markets and its game total go through the match's event, which Polymarket lists separately from the side markets.

The pricing half uses the large-trade alerts from April 2, 2026, the first day the alert table's outcome labels are trustworthy (0xinsider.com/research/favorite-longshot-bias-polymarket-sports documents why): 3,591 buys of $1,000 or more across 386 markets, $46.5 million in stakes. Rates carry plain binomial half-widths. The pricing intervals resample markets rather than buys, because thirty large bets on one match are one result.

## Both teams scored in 54.4% of matches

54.4% of the 13,071 matches settled Yes, with a half-width of 0.85 points. That is the base rate a both teams to score price starts from: Yes at 54 cents is the market calling a match average, Yes at 45 cents says one side is expected to struggle to score, and Yes at 65 cents says both attacks are expected to get through.

The half markets are much lower, because each half gives both teams less time. Both teams scored in the second half in 36.7% of 1,930 settled second-half markets, and in the first half in 21.8% of 3,083. The two half samples are different, smaller sets of matches, so read them as separate base rates rather than two halves of the same games.

## Both teams to score by competition

Eleven competitions have 250 or more settled both teams to score markets. MLS leads at 63.4% of 382 matches, then the Bundesliga at 62.9%, the Championship at 59.3% and the Brasileirão at 59.0%. The Premier League sits at 56.6%, La Liga at 56.4%, Spain's Segunda División at 55.4% and the Saudi Pro League at 53.6%.

Three competitions sit near or below half: the Conference League at 50.2%, Serie A at 46.6% and Argentina's Primera División at 44.6%. With 250 to 450 matches each, every competition's rate carries a half-width of five to six points. MLS, the Bundesliga and the Championship sit above the overall rate by more than their half-widths; Serie A and Argentina sit below it by more than theirs. The rest are within the noise of the overall rate.

Argentina's low rate sits beside its draw record. The soccer draws study at 0xinsider.com/research/soccer-draws-polymarket found Argentina's Primera División drawing 31.0% of its matches, among the highest draw rates of any competition in that study. Low scoring shows up in both numbers: more matches where one side fails to score, and more that finish level.

## Both teams to score and the 2.5 goal line

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are different bets that usually land together. On 12,704 matches with both markets settled, the match went over 2.5 goals 77.9% of the time when both teams scored, across 6,903 matches, and 22.4% of the time when one did not, across 5,801.

The reason is arithmetic. When both teams score, the match already has two goals and needs one more to go over. When one team fails to score, the other has to score three on its own. Multiply through and about 42% of these matches had both teams score and three or more goals, the combination a sportsbook sells as BTTS and Over 2.5.

That dependence matters to anyone combining the two. Priced as if independent, a 54% chance and a 53% chance would give a combined 29%, well short of the 42% that happened. A combined bet on the two is a bet on one kind of match, open and high-scoring, and should be priced that way.

## Both teams to score and the draw

Draws are more common when both teams score. On 12,318 matches with a both teams to score market and a draw market settled, 34.4% of the matches where both teams scored ended level, and 15.5% of the matches where one did not.

A match where one team fails to score can only be drawn 0-0, so the lower figure is the 0-0 rate among those matches. Across all of them, about 7% of matches finished 0-0 and about 19% finished as a scoring draw, 1-1 or higher, which together make up the 25.8% draw rate of this sample. A bettor who backs the draw is mostly backing a match where both teams score.

## The score at halftime

Across 5,741 settled draw-at-halftime markets, the match was level at the break 43.1% of the time, with a half-width of 1.28 points. That is the most likely single halftime result.

On the 4,435 matches with all three halftime markets settled, every one resolved exactly one Yes: level 41.8% of the time, the team named first ahead 32.7%, and the team named second ahead 25.4%. Polymarket's event data lists the team named first as the home side, so the seven-point gap is the home side's edge at halftime.

## What a halftime lead is worth

A team leading at halftime went on to win 75.4% of the time across 3,530 matches, drew 16.9% and lost 7.8%. A halftime lead turns into a loss about one match in thirteen.

A level halftime decides much less. Of 2,415 matches level at the break, 37.4% ended level and the rest produced a winner. That is well above the full-match draw rate of about 26%, and still short of even money: more often than not, a match level at halftime produced a winner.

These are counts of results, not prices. The in-play price of a leader or a draw at halftime already reflects the score, and this study does not say whether that price was right.

## What large bets on both teams to score paid

Large buyers of both teams to score Yes paid 54.2 cents on average and won 57.2% of the time: plus 2.91 points, and plus 3.37% on the dollar, across 1,739 buys on 296 markets. Buyers of No paid 58.4 cents and won 57.9%: minus 0.49 points, and minus 3.93% on the dollar.

Neither side clears zero. Resampling markets, the Yes interval runs from -7.12 to plus 12.43 and the No interval from -10.71 to plus 8.83. Fewer than 400 markets drew a large bet, so the intervals are wide, and the data shows large bettors pricing both teams to score about as well as the market did.

## What this study does not show

It does not compare Polymarket's both teams to score prices with a sportsbook's, and it does not follow how a price moved before kickoff. The pricing half uses the price large buyers paid, not a closing price, and covers April 2 to September 13, 2026.

The counts start with the first settled market of each type on record: October 24, 2025 for both teams to score, and February 27, 2026 for the complete sets of halftime markets. A market without a market type on record is not counted. The competition names come from slug prefixes checked against fixtures in the run, and each prefix counts every match Polymarket filed under it.

And the joins between side markets and result markets depend on Polymarket's event slugs. A match drops out of a joined figure when the other market is missing or was filed under a different slug, which is why the joined samples are smaller than the counts.

## What it means for a soccer bettor

Both teams score a little more than half the time, and the competition moves the rate by ten points either way. MLS and the Bundesliga run near 63%, Serie A and Argentina under 47%. Start from the competition's rate, then adjust for the match.

Treat both teams to score and Over 2.5 as one view, not two. They land together about four times in five when both teams score, so a bettor who likes both is making one bet twice. The draw belongs to the same family: a 1-1 is both teams scoring.

A halftime lead is worth a lot and a level halftime is worth less than it looks. Leaders won three times in four; a level match at the break still produced a winner more often than not.

## How to use it on 0xinsider

Every soccer match on 0xinsider.com/sports/soccer opens to an event page whose Markets section lists the match's Polymarket markets by family: the result markets, spreads, totals, both teams to score, the halftime result, and the first-half and second-half versions. Each line shows the Yes and No prices with the price change over the last hour and the last 24 hours, and each match card on the board shows its most traded side markets under the result prices.

The event page's Top holders tab lists the wallets holding each outcome with the grade each has earned, and the whale alerts feed at 0xinsider.com/whale-alerts shows every large trade as it fills, marked BUY or SELL, with the wallet's grade. The guide at 0xinsider.com/learn/both-teams-to-score-explained covers how to read and bet the market, and 0xinsider.com/learn/how-to-bet-on-soccer-polymarket covers the three result markets, double chance and draw no bet.

## How to check it yourself

Every number on this page comes from one read-only run of a set of queries against the production database at 19:41 UTC on September 13, 2026. The query text, the raw output, the market-level export and the bootstrap output are public at github.com/0xinsider/research, under polymarket-sports-markets, in the files whose names carry the word btts. The export is committed, so the intervals reproduce with the bootstrap alone and no database.

The outcome universe is every settled Polymarket soccer market of each type with a kickoff on record and a Yes or No result. The pricing universe is every large-trade alert for a Polymarket buy on a both teams to score market, settled after the trade, at 2 to 98 cents, from April 2 to September 13, 2026.

Expect the counts to grow; soccer settles every day. The overall rate should hold within its half-width. The competition rates will move with each round, and the buy-level edges should stay inside their intervals.

## FAQ

### How often do both teams score in soccer?

On Polymarket, both teams scored in 54.4% of 13,071 settled soccer matches from October 24, 2025 to September 13, 2026, with a binomial half-width of 0.85 points. In the first half alone it was 21.8%, and in the second half 36.7%.

### Which leagues have the most both teams to score?

Among competitions with 250 or more settled Polymarket both teams to score markets, MLS was highest at 63.4%, followed by the Bundesliga at 62.9%, the Championship at 59.3% and the Brasileirão at 59.0%. The Premier League was at 56.6%. Argentina's Primera División was lowest at 44.6%, with Serie A at 46.6%.

### How often does over 2.5 goals hit when both teams score?

77.9% of the time, across 6,903 settled Polymarket soccer matches with both markets. When at least one team failed to score, the match went over 2.5 goals 22.4% of the time.

### How often does the team leading at halftime win?

A team leading at halftime won 75.4% of 3,530 settled Polymarket soccer matches, drew 16.9% and lost 7.8%. Matches level at halftime ended level 37.4% of the time.

### Is both teams to score a good bet?

Not by default. From April 2 to September 13, 2026, large Polymarket buyers of both teams to score Yes came in 2.91 points ahead of their price and buyers of No 0.49 points behind, with market-resampled intervals that both include zero. The price was about right; an edge has to come from knowing more about the match.