--- title: "How to Bet on Soccer on Polymarket: Win, Draw, Double Chance and Draw No Bet" canonical: "https://0xinsider.com/learn/how-to-bet-on-soccer-polymarket" datePublished: "2026-09-13" dateModified: "2026-09-13" description: "How Polymarket lists a soccer match as three markets, how to read the prices, how to build double chance and draw no bet from Polymarket shares, and how often 17,953 settled matches ended in a draw, by league." --- # How to Bet on Soccer on Polymarket: Win, Draw, Double Chance and Draw No Bet Last updated: 2026-09-13 Canonical: https://0xinsider.com/learn/how-to-bet-on-soccer-polymarket A sportsbook sells a soccer match as one 1X2 market. Polymarket lists it as three markets: one for each team to win and one for the draw, each with a Yes and a No. This guide covers how to read those three prices, how to bet double chance with one trade and draw no bet with two, how often matches actually end level (25.9% of 17,953 settled Polymarket matches, from 18.4% in the Champions League to 31.0% in Argentina), what large bets on the draw show, and how to read a match on 0xinsider before and during the game. ## Three markets per match Every Polymarket soccer match is an event with three binary markets. For the Manchester derby on September 13, 2026 they were "Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13?", "Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?" and "Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?". Each market has a Yes side and a No side, a Yes share pays $1 if its outcome happens, and a No share pays $1 if it does not. Exactly one of the three settles Yes. That is the rule the structure depends on, and it holds in the data: of 10,057 Polymarket matches from April to September 2026 with all three markets listed and settled, every one resolved exactly one Yes. The study at 0xinsider.com/research/soccer-draws-polymarket has the count. Most soccer markets on Polymarket settle on the result of the match as its rules define it, so check the rules on a cup match where extra time or penalties are possible. The market's own rules page is the authority on what counts. ## Reading the three prices A Yes price is a probability. Home at 50¢, draw at 27¢ and away at 25¢ means the market gives the home side a 50% chance, the draw 27% and the away side 25%. Those three add up to $1.02, not $1.00, and the two cents over is what buying all three at those asks would cost above the dollar one of them pays. A sportsbook pricing the same match at -110, +250 and +300 implies 52.4%, 28.6% and 25.0%, which add up to 106%: the margin is there too, folded into the odds. Because exactly one outcome happens, the prices hold each other in place. If the draw rose to 32¢ with the team prices unchanged, the three would sum to $1.07, and anyone could buy No on all three for $1.93 and collect $2, because exactly two of the three No shares pay. Traders take that gap, which pulls the prices back into line. The draw price moves when a team price moves. Read the draw price against the base rate. Across 17,953 settled Polymarket matches, 25.9% ended in a draw. A draw at 26¢ is the market calling this an average match. A draw at 20¢ says one team is clearly stronger, and a draw at 32¢ says the market expects a tight game. ## Double chance: buy No on a team A double chance bet wins on two of the three results: home or draw, away or draw, or home or away. On Polymarket each of those is one trade. Home or draw is No on the away team to win. Away or draw is No on the home team. Home or away is No on the draw. With the prices above, No on the away team costs about 76¢, one minus the away team's bid. It pays $1 if the home side wins or the match draws, a return of 32% on the stake. You could build the same bet by buying home Yes at 50¢ and draw Yes at 27¢, which costs 77¢ for the same dollar, so the No is the cheaper route here and the simpler one everywhere: one trade instead of two. Buying No on a team was also the busiest place large bettors backed the draw in 2026. Large buyers of No on a team to win came in 3.25 points ahead of the price across 38,802 buys, and ahead on favorites and underdogs alike, with a match-resampled interval from minus 0.91 to plus 7.06 that does not clear zero. ## Draw no bet, built from two markets Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw. Polymarket has no market for it, but two trades build it exactly. To back the home side draw no bet with $100, put the stake across home Yes and draw Yes in proportion to one minus the draw price and the draw price: $73 on home Yes at 50¢ and $27 on draw Yes at 27¢. If the home side wins, the $73 buys 146 shares that pay $146, a profit of $46. If the match draws, the $27 buys 100 draw shares that pay $100, so the stake comes back. If the away side wins, both lose and the $100 is gone. The general split is the draw price times the stake on the draw, and the rest on the team, and the effective price of the draw no bet is the team price divided by one minus the draw price: 50 divided by 73, or 68.5%. The chart below puts the three bets side by side on the same example prices: home Yes, double chance through No on the away team, and draw no bet on the home side. It is arithmetic on example prices, not a measurement, and it ignores fees and the spread. ## How often matches draw, by league The draw rate varies more by competition than by season. Across 17,953 settled Polymarket matches since August 2024, 25.9% drew, and the rate held between 24.7% and 27.1% in every quarter with more than 700 matches. By competition, the Premier League drew 26.2% of 770 matches, MLS 25.3% of 601, La Liga 24.9%, Serie A 25.1%, the Bundesliga 24.4% and Ligue 1 25.9%. Argentina's Primera División drew 31.0% of 500 matches and the spring 2026 J2 League 31.6% of 301. The Champions League and the Europa League both drew 18.4% of the time, on 484 and 310 matches. Use the competition as your starting point. A Champions League draw priced like a Premier League draw is priced for a result that happens less often, and an Argentine draw at 25¢ is priced below that league's history. Each rate carries a half-width of three to five points, listed in the study. ## Is the draw underpriced? If bettors prefer backing a team to backing a stalemate, the draw should be a little cheap. The Polymarket data leans that way without proving it. From April to September 2026, large buyers of the draw paid 42.6¢ on average and won 46.6% of the time, 4.00 points ahead of the price, and large buyers of No on the draw came in 2.11 points behind. Counted one match at a time, the 350 draws bought before kickoff were priced at 27.3¢ and drew 28.6% of the time. None of those clears zero once each match counts once. Large bets cluster: the ten draw markets with the most large Yes buys held 17% of them, and eight of those ten matches drew. So treat the draw as fairly priced with a slight lean, and bet it when your view of this match differs from the market's, not because draws are cheap in general. ## Live soccer: the draw price and the clock Once the match starts, the draw market behaves differently from the team markets. A level match becomes more likely to end level with every minute that passes, so the draw price rises through a tied second half and falls away the moment anyone scores. Large in-play draw buyers paid 51.8¢ on average, against 28.1¢ before kickoff. In-play draw buys between 50¢ and 70¢ won 68.2% of the time at an average of 59.5¢, the part of the draw market that looked cheapest in the data, on 544 buys. Draw buys at 70¢ and up, a level match deep into the half, won 81.2% at 84.1¢ and came in behind. A red card, an injury or a substitution changes the scoring rate and the live price with it; the whale alerts feed shows who is trading the move. ## Goals: soccer totals The other soccer market with real volume is the total. Polymarket lists Over and Under on a half-point number of goals, most often 2.5, with 1.5 for games the market expects to be tight and 3.5 for open ones. Soccer totals went Under 54.3% of the time across 49,291 settled Polymarket matches, and the Under price already reflected it: large Under buyers paid more and won more, in about the right proportion. The chart below shows large buys on soccer totals by line. Over 3.5 buyers paid 51¢ and won 46% of the time in 2026, on an interval too wide to call. The guide at 0xinsider.com/learn/over-under-betting-explained covers totals in full, and 0xinsider.com/learn/both-teams-to-score-explained covers both teams to score, the other goals market. ## How to read a soccer match on 0xinsider The soccer board at 0xinsider.com/sports/soccer lists each match with the home, draw and away prices, the kickoff countdown, and the live score once play starts. Under each match, the Profitable wallets block shows each outcome's share of the profitable wallets' money beside its price, the draw included. A draw the profitable wallets back more than its price does is worth a look; a draw they ignore is priced by everyone else. Open the match for its event page. The rail's Top holders tab lists the wallets holding each of the three outcomes with the grade each has earned, and each market has its own Yes and No switch, so you can see who is on No for a team, the double chance side. The whale alerts feed at 0xinsider.com/whale-alerts shows each large trade on the match as it fills, marked BUY or SELL, with the buyer's grade. The pick of the day at 0xinsider.com/pick-of-the-day includes soccer matches, and each pick records its entry and closing price. For the habits behind a good bet, 0xinsider.com/learn/sports-betting-analytics-guide covers implied probability, expected value and closing line value. ## Frequently Asked Questions How do you bet on a draw on Polymarket? Buy Yes on the match's draw market, titled "Will vs. end in a draw?". A Yes share pays $1 if the match ends level. You can also bet against the draw by buying No on the same market. How do you bet double chance on Polymarket? Buy No on the team you want to bet against. No on the away team pays if the home team wins or the match draws; No on the home team pays if the away team wins or the match draws; No on the draw pays if either team wins. How do you bet draw no bet on Polymarket? Split the stake between the team's Yes and the draw's Yes: the draw price times the stake goes on the draw, the rest on the team. With the team at 50 cents and the draw at 27 cents, $73 on the team and $27 on the draw returns $146 if the team wins and $100 if the match draws. How often do soccer matches end in a draw? 25.9% of 17,953 settled Polymarket soccer matches from August 2024 to September 2026 ended in a draw. The Premier League drew 26.2% of the time, the Champions League 18.4% and Argentina's Primera División 31.0%. Is the draw a good bet on Polymarket? Not by default. Large buyers of the draw came in 4 points ahead of the price from April to September 2026, with an interval that includes zero, and pre-kickoff draw markets priced at 27.3 cents drew 28.6% of the time. The draw is priced close to its rate; the edge has to come from your read of the match.